What the iranians don't realize is the u.s. and israel want a casus belli to strike.
Why?
Because if the u.s. or israel strikes first, russia is then vindicated in coming to the aide of their allies (as well as china joining the mix).
With the u.s. or israel striking first, russia and china both are given their own casus belli.
And the western nations want every reason to deny that to russia et al. They're playing chicken on a razor thin margin of error.
If it were not so the u.s. and/or other western nations would have already radically escalated to full blown war with russia, escalated directly rather than indirectly.
The u.s. and western nation's lose credibility for a cause to go to large scale war if russia, iran, and affiliates wait to strike only after being struck.
By doing nothing both israel and western nations will be hamstrung into becoming the villains of the global narrative and will immediately give eastern financial schemes like BRICs cause celebre to pivot sooner rather than later in light of "western aggression."
Because of this, france, germany, some other nato nation, israel, or the u.s. will be forced to carry out false-flag attacks either in europe or on u.s. soil (50-50 chance between the two).
To diffuse the situation russia or another opposition nation should offer immediate legal immunity and legal sanctuary to netanyahu while amplifying his opposition. His options then become annihilation (no one wins) or comfortable retirement, and that becomes an easy choice to make for him. The u.s. loses cause to go to war (which the u.s. regime is happy to have happen), israel gets a political reset, which diffuses the middle eastern situation, and the ukraine issue becomes settled, while decoupling u.s. rare earth concerns from chinese control.
Israel and its PM are the lynchpin.
Meanwhile, with the sudden acceleration of BRICs+, London loses financial control and the u.s. gains broad discretion and leverage over the remains of NATO.
Ukraine becomes a special economic zone and buffer as a result.
China pivots to hostilities with India, who are pushed closer geopolitically to Pakistan, defusing that situation.
South America can be leveraged into taking back immigrants, in exchange for better BRICS+ access, and the dollar strengthens in light of the failure of NATO and sidelining of london/uk finance. The result of this is the yuan weakens naturally, stabilizing china and the import/export trade by lowering prices there and strengthening labor under Xi's regime.
This is how I would do it, this is how it should happen.
[ + ] FreeinTX
[ - ] FreeinTX 2 points 2 daysJun 12, 2025 14:17:46 ago (+2/-0)
If anything happens where it's alleged to be Iran, it will be a false flag.
[ + ] prototype
[ - ] prototype [op] 0 points 2 daysJun 12, 2025 14:33:53 ago (+0/-0)*
It doesn't matter if Iran strikes first with or without provocation. They immediately give israel a cause for war, and the u.s. will get dragged into it. The u.s. regime has factions, some of them want a war, some of them don't.
None of them want the follow-on war with russia.
If Iran doesn't attack first, yes, there is likely to be some sort of false attack blamed on them or allies of theirs.
The critical difference is those false-flag attacks leave breadcrumbs, that can, like threads, be pulled on to force the u.s. to back off sooner or later down the line. Sort of like how 9/11 was used as leverage against israel and saudi arabia in some backchannel agreements.
Good post.
[ + ] FreeinTX
[ - ] FreeinTX 1 point 2 daysJun 12, 2025 15:02:43 ago (+1/-0)
If anything happens that would paint Iran as the bad actor, it would be guaranteed that Israel did it and faggots in our government are helping Israel get what they want.
[ + ] prototype
[ - ] prototype [op] 0 points 2 daysJun 12, 2025 18:22:42 ago (+0/-0)
Yes, I am saying it was used against them.
Let me explain how international blackmail works: Every nation knows every other nation's dirty laundry. The term of art is "ties that bind."
By knowing these things it changes their political calculus, even when silo'd strategies aren't communicated between partner nations, they each understand where their red lines and intelligence 'borders' are, in terms of what will trigger one country or another going completely off script. So they work around each other, mindful of what is and is not tacitly permitted.
If it ever suited u.s. interests, conglomerate corporate-intelligence junta interests, you could and would see them come right out and say israel did 9/11, irrespective of if every one of the decision makers were jewish.
It's a covert affiliation marker, not a guarantor of absolute fealty. Thats how psychopaths operate.
And all the institutional sub-regime's and silos filter for those lacking human empathy, all the ways at the top, and on through to the very bottom tiers of power and influence.
[ + ] glooper
[ - ] glooper 0 points 2 daysJun 12, 2025 15:10:58 ago (+0/-0)
But keep telling everyone how it is, with your self assured confidence...
[ + ] FreeinTX
[ - ] FreeinTX 1 point 2 daysJun 12, 2025 15:20:35 ago (+1/-0)
[ + ] Zyklonbeekeeper
[ - ] Zyklonbeekeeper 1 point 2 daysJun 12, 2025 14:13:01 ago (+1/-0)
[ + ] prototype
[ - ] prototype [op] 0 points 2 daysJun 12, 2025 14:35:42 ago (+0/-0)*
A significant coalition of factions in the u.s. want nothing to do with a war against iran. Some related to oil interests, some related to pro-islamic factions, some because they see the follow-on war with russia as unwinnable.
Likewise in israel, some factions have concluded it is suicide.
I suspect the suicidal messianic faction will win out and strike iran anyway, with or without manufacturing an attack on a western nation to justify a war against iran.