Last year in Jan we had a run of cold weather for almost three weeks. I was starting to worry. Was it -34? no. But we were in the minus a lot. If I remember we were -14 to -18 for weeks.
We knew this weather was coming this year because La Nina set up in Canada.
It's going to be -34 down to Northern Texas on Jan ~9th and Jan 10th... and this is after it dumping rain-ice for a few days prior. Over 1 foot of snow is also predicted to fall from Jan 5th thru Jan. 10th.
You have to really look at the model legends - that is -34 below normal
If the average in Texas is 50, 34 below normal is only 16F. Still very cold compared to lots of things, but not an air temp of -34F.
I looked up the path of the cold air from Wisconsin to Tennessee and the temps all dip well below normal, but very few air temps get below 0F in that region, just because the average highs are in the 40F range.
Imagine copious homes losing power all at once in -34 degree weather! Water pipes will be breaking everywhere! So your left with homes with no electricity or water!
Anyone who doesn’t have a basic stockpile of provisions by now is either silly or very young.
I know I picked up an old emergency kerosine heater some years ago. Never used it. Might be a good time to make sure I have some kerosine. I figure the worst most likely thing to happen would be a blizzard where we won’t leave the house for a few days. If the natural gas or electricity goes out, our boiler won’t work.
[ - ] MaryXmas 1 point 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 23:28:55 ago (+1/-0)
Save that kerosene so you can keep the candles burning at your local church.
When one of my kids was born we lost power for 4 days in the middle of winter. We slept near the fireplace, it wasn't like my wife could move anyhow. Good memories.
[ - ] PenisEnvy 1 point 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 22:34:38 ago (+1/-0)
To live in the snow belt here one just be prepared 4 months of winter. The colder it is the better for us. Once the lakes freeze we do not get the lake effect anymore which is the real bitch of winter. 3 foot snows out of nowhere are common once the wind changes.
The problem I have with these youtuber weather people is that they never announce the legends for the model in use.
I guess their target audience understands more?
What these models are predicting are temperature deviations - not actual air or ground temps.
Just by looking at it, I was very confused by how Minnesota stays "warm" while Tennessee got so cold.
And I found my answer. Suppose this mass of air is 0F. The model will show the temperature deviation between normal - which for Minnesota is only -20F, since the average Jan temp is 20F.
As the 0F air moves down to Tennessee, the temperature deviation grows, since the average Jan temp for Tennessee is 50F. If the air mass temp stays at 0, then the Tennessee deviation is -50F, but that is not going to be ground temps, which are still cold, but only around 0.
I hope the local weather announcers make this clearer to the locals, and while they do need to prepare, since much of the infrastructure (like Texas) is not prepared for below freezing temps lasting several days. But it isn't the weather apocalypse the youtubers are making it seem like.
Morning temps in Minnesota of -20F and below are routine during winter, and that is almost -40F deviation, and nobody causes mass hysteria.
If you are talking about the next two weeks, there is nowhere getting anywhere near -34F
Even Minnesota is only going to get down to like -10F some nights, based on the extended forecasts.
Highs everywhere in that big pocket from Tennessee to DC are going to be between 10F and 20F, which is very cold for their infrastructure, but not -34F
in these last three you can see the little dips in the graph that show BELOW NORMAL temps by a large amount, even by -30F... Wow, could that be what the legend means?
And I know at least one of these websites uses the European model.
Edit: I'll throw in Winnipeg in Canada, which seems to be at the start of the cold air:
[ + ] oyveyo
[ - ] oyveyo 4 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 19:34:06 ago (+4/-0)
[ + ] HonkyMcNiggerSpic
[ - ] HonkyMcNiggerSpic 4 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 17:12:46 ago (+5/-1)
[ + ] KosherHiveKicker
[ - ] KosherHiveKicker [op] 0 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 17:45:42 ago (+0/-0)*
Livestock exposed to -20 degree high-wind and wet weather for over 48hours start to die. This is going to be even lower, and will last longer.
[ + ] HonkyMcNiggerSpic
[ - ] HonkyMcNiggerSpic 0 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 17:55:19 ago (+0/-0)
We knew this weather was coming this year because La Nina set up in Canada.
[ + ] KosherHiveKicker
[ - ] KosherHiveKicker [op] 0 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 18:03:18 ago (+0/-0)
It's going to be -34 down to Northern Texas on Jan ~9th and Jan 10th... and this is after it dumping rain-ice for a few days prior. Over 1 foot of snow is also predicted to fall from Jan 5th thru Jan. 10th.
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal 2 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 08:53:55 ago (+2/-0)
If the average in Texas is 50, 34 below normal is only 16F. Still very cold compared to lots of things, but not an air temp of -34F.
I looked up the path of the cold air from Wisconsin to Tennessee and the temps all dip well below normal, but very few air temps get below 0F in that region, just because the average highs are in the 40F range.
[ + ] iSnark
[ - ] iSnark 2 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 19:25:06 ago (+2/-0)
[ + ] MaryXmas
[ - ] MaryXmas 2 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 21:04:42 ago (+2/-0)
[ + ] Trope
[ - ] Trope 0 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 21:46:32 ago (+0/-0)
I know I picked up an old emergency kerosine heater some years ago. Never used it. Might be a good time to make sure I have some kerosine. I figure the worst most likely thing to happen would be a blizzard where we won’t leave the house for a few days. If the natural gas or electricity goes out, our boiler won’t work.
[ + ] MaryXmas
[ - ] MaryXmas 1 point 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 23:28:55 ago (+1/-0)
When one of my kids was born we lost power for 4 days in the middle of winter. We slept near the fireplace, it wasn't like my wife could move anyhow. Good memories.
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 08:58:08 ago (+0/-0)
A -34F departure from a normal of 50F is only 16F, which is still cold, but not the same as an air temperature of -34F.
Here are some examples of numbers
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/knoxville/37902/january-weather/331087?year=2025
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/oklahoma-city/73102/january-weather/350143?year=2025
nothing earth shattering about those temperatures, except that the residents are not really used to them.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pierre/57501/january-weather/335569?year=2025
even in South Dakota, the temperatures do not get anywhere near -34F
[ + ] Shotinthedark3
[ - ] Shotinthedark3 2 points 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 18:55:21 ago (+2/-0)
[ + ] PenisEnvy
[ - ] PenisEnvy 1 point 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 22:34:38 ago (+1/-0)
[ + ] PostWallHelena
[ - ] PostWallHelena 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 01:58:03 ago (+0/-0)
Did not know that.
[ + ] Looneyskiprooney
[ - ] Looneyskiprooney 1 point 4 monthsDec 30, 2024 19:31:43 ago (+2/-1)
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 10:13:04 ago (+0/-0)
I guess their target audience understands more?
What these models are predicting are temperature deviations - not actual air or ground temps.
Just by looking at it, I was very confused by how Minnesota stays "warm" while Tennessee got so cold.
And I found my answer. Suppose this mass of air is 0F. The model will show the temperature deviation between normal - which for Minnesota is only -20F, since the average Jan temp is 20F.
As the 0F air moves down to Tennessee, the temperature deviation grows, since the average Jan temp for Tennessee is 50F. If the air mass temp stays at 0, then the Tennessee deviation is -50F, but that is not going to be ground temps, which are still cold, but only around 0.
I hope the local weather announcers make this clearer to the locals, and while they do need to prepare, since much of the infrastructure (like Texas) is not prepared for below freezing temps lasting several days. But it isn't the weather apocalypse the youtubers are making it seem like.
Morning temps in Minnesota of -20F and below are routine during winter, and that is almost -40F deviation, and nobody causes mass hysteria.
[ + ] KosherHiveKicker
[ - ] KosherHiveKicker [op] 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 12:20:32 ago (+0/-0)
We have extended periods of 0 thru -20 in 2024, but a week of -30 is in record setting territory.
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 12:26:02 ago (+0/-0)
Even Minnesota is only going to get down to like -10F some nights, based on the extended forecasts.
Highs everywhere in that big pocket from Tennessee to DC are going to be between 10F and 20F, which is very cold for their infrastructure, but not -34F
[ + ] KosherHiveKicker
[ - ] KosherHiveKicker [op] 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 15:57:52 ago (+0/-0)
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal -1 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 17:11:25 ago (+0/-1)*
You have to look at the legend. -34 is not air temperature. All these models are departure from normals. LOL
Show me any of these temperatures in the next 2 weeks that even go below 0F.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/99bfc49ab3b99e771d228d076a0634ab5cf2f0ad9fa5ed8cb2d22eef998a899a
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/689731d7fc13b20fd5c8781a5cc4e0fe3dcd4088210d3eb95971c7d94dc3cc6b
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/99e810ac432bd18880df80e69b0aebb6ea786d9c18063be49691766ebcf743b1
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/9515894dc293f46dc143a4f8c0757101043a8dca6a00b6020a50bc8334189709
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/green-bay/54303/january-weather/1868?year=2025
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/nashville/37243/january-weather/351090?year=2025
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/oklahoma-city/73102/january-weather/350143?year=2025
in these last three you can see the little dips in the graph that show BELOW NORMAL temps by a large amount, even by -30F... Wow, could that be what the legend means?
And I know at least one of these websites uses the European model.
Edit: I'll throw in Winnipeg in Canada, which seems to be at the start of the cold air:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/ca/winnipeg/r3b/january-weather/48989?year=2025
If Winnipeg doesn't even get below -15F there is no way that air is cold enough to create -34 in Tennessee.
[ + ] KosherHiveKicker
[ - ] KosherHiveKicker [op] 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 18:21:53 ago (+0/-0)*
- https://youtu.be/3u4n1QuH4E4?t=327
- https://youtu.be/3u4n1QuH4E4?t=174
[ + ] KosherHiveKicker
[ - ] KosherHiveKicker [op] 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 18:29:55 ago (+0/-0)
Prepare to be educated on how cold fronts, and artic cells actually move.
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal -1 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 19:07:44 ago (+0/-1)
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal 0 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 19:13:43 ago (+0/-0)
And before that he says that the temperatures could be dangerous to crops. At -34F ground temperature there is no crop survival at all.
[ + ] localsal
[ - ] localsal -1 points 4 monthsDec 31, 2024 19:06:26 ago (+0/-1)
The numbers on those maps are not temperatures - they are TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS.
I'll send you the recorded temps in 2 weeks.