Following
this post about the ISS falling, I started watching its orbit.
First thing of note - the ISS has a much
higher LOWER atmospheric drag value in its orbital elements than with other craft at that altitude,
like 2-4 times higher by one order of magnitude.
That can be due to having a large cross-section with hollow volume inside, though. With LESS drag, it should be EASIER to keep in orbit.
At the time (2024-12-18) its lowest altitude was 409.74 km; the projected descent was around 0.15 daily, which is indeed around 4.5 km monthly, close to the 5 about which "FEMA"-anon was doomsaying. Other craft drag too, though - anything as low as 400 is going to need tangential propulsion to keep speed up.
Since then (5 days ago) the ISS has been given a 4 km RADIAL boost to raise its orbit, now with a low of 413.20. This has delayed its timing and placed it some 10 degrees off its previous point above Earth, unlike other craft for which the older elements could still be used now.
Will keep watching and comparing it, and maybe try to get older data for comparison. If radial boosts are a regular occurrence then something's off, it should be a gradual tangential push to counter the drag.
EDIT: Misread the drag term, ISS is actually smoother and having to boost it upwards is sort of bad.
[ + ] NoRefunds
[ - ] NoRefunds -1 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 09:47:02 ago (+2/-3)
Kys
[ + ] Anus_Expander
[ - ] Anus_Expander 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 10:16:39 ago (+2/-2)
[ + ] Belfuro
[ - ] Belfuro 2 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 11:44:54 ago (+2/-0)
You are in fact. Fake and gay.
[ + ] Anus_Expander
[ - ] Anus_Expander -1 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 18:21:04 ago (+0/-1)
[ + ] uvulectomy
[ - ] uvulectomy 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 12:59:44 ago (+0/-0)
As for water, they can reclaim something like 70% of the water used onboard, so it can easily last between resupply visits.
Did you just assume the ISS is somewhere unreachable and they can't get regular supply trips?
[ + ] VitaminSieg
[ - ] VitaminSieg 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 13:14:28 ago (+0/-0)
[ + ] uvulectomy
[ - ] uvulectomy 1 point 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 13:32:45 ago (+1/-0)
If there's an actual emergency that requires evacuation, there's always enough crew-rated vehicles to get everyone out. Currently that's a SpaceX Dragon (Freedom), and Soyuz MS-26 (callsign бурла́к).
They had a 2-seat shortage when the Boeing shit-heap left, but they could have hitched a ride on the crew Dragon if necessary. Strapped in on the floorboards, minivan roadtrip style. But that would have obviously only been for an extreme emergency.
The seat shortage was eliminated by making Butch and Suni part of the next crew and only sending up two people in the next Dragon instead of four. Which also negates the "muh supplies" argument above anyway, since they took the place of two crew who were already scheduled to be there.
[ + ] Anus_Expander
[ - ] Anus_Expander 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 18:20:24 ago (+0/-0)
[ + ] TheNoticing
[ - ] TheNoticing 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 11:08:39 ago (+0/-0)
[ + ] Belfuro
[ - ] Belfuro 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 12:29:26 ago (+0/-0)
To raise the orbit the iss needs to boost prograde at least twice.
A radial burn makes no sense. That is a burn perpendicular to Prograde. It has very little positive effect, just rotates the orbit on the same plane, around the craft. Used to match orbits.
The thing is, the time of human satellites is coming to an end. The great natural reset us upon us.
[ + ] uvulectomy
[ - ] uvulectomy -1 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 12:55:57 ago (+0/-1)
You're making no sense. If you rotate the orbit, you're changing the orbital plane, i.e. the inclination. If they needed to change the orbital path, that's why they would use a radial thrust vector. The 4km increase in apogee is just a side-effect that needs to be accounted for since you have to use thrust over time because an instantaneous impulse is not possible.
[ + ] the_old_ones
[ - ] the_old_ones 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 13:26:01 ago (+0/-0)
rotation of the object is not its vector trajectory
[ + ] uvulectomy
[ - ] uvulectomy 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 13:58:54 ago (+0/-0)
You're drunk/high (again). I said nothing about rotating the object. I said rotating the orbit, also known as a "plane change" or "alignment change." If you change the orbital inclination (i.e. plane), you're changing it's path (i.e. trajectory).
Also "vector trajectory" isn't even a term, let alone one I used. Trajectory is the path of an object under the action of a given force. Vector is a mathematical component made up of direction and magnitude. In this case thrust.
Go sleep it off.
[ + ] the_old_ones
[ - ] the_old_ones 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 14:12:43 ago (+0/-0)
i feel like you're underestimating how fucky navigating in zero-g space gets
[ + ] uvulectomy
[ - ] uvulectomy -1 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 17:36:11 ago (+0/-1)
"It gets fucky" doesn't mean you're correct in making up terms (also the big boys say "complicated").
So again, sleep it off.
[ + ] the_old_ones
[ - ] the_old_ones 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 17:51:43 ago (+0/-0)
it is not a misnomer. it is specific
[ + ] Trope
[ - ] Trope 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 17:03:39 ago (+0/-0)
Starwars is gay.
[ + ] dosvydanya_freedomz
[ - ] dosvydanya_freedomz 1 point 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 09:40:13 ago (+1/-0)
due to anxiety maybe? i think her name is sunnita
[ + ] SithEmpire
[ - ] SithEmpire [op] 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 15:17:38 ago (+0/-0)
Thus far it isn't literally falling, although it may be receiving a lot of help to stay in orbit.
[ + ] mikenigger
[ - ] mikenigger 2 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 09:17:30 ago (+2/-0)
[ + ] beece
[ - ] beece 3 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 09:02:51 ago (+3/-0)
[ + ] SithEmpire
[ - ] SithEmpire [op] 0 points 5 monthsDec 23, 2024 15:09:37 ago (+0/-0)
We're obviously never getting evidence of something as serious as a fracture, but I'm thinking one doesn't have to believe that at face value necessarily, if the public orbit information shows some niggery-diggery.
Not that orbit irregularities determine cause either, but no harm in checking! The public orbital elements can't lie about the position because antennas pointed at the ISS would stop working. Craft can be redacted from elements lists if they are classified, but the ISS isn't.