×
Login Register an account
Top Submissions Explore Upgoat Search Random Subverse Random Post Colorize! Site Rules Donate
20

It's all but certain the Fed will be cutting interest rates this week. Who else thinks inflation will skyrocket before the year's end?

submitted by PoundOfFlesh to Finance 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 19:54:17 ago (+20/-0)     (Finance)

Let's put aside for a moment that the Fed is a completely immoral, evil institution that should have never been created and the cycle of raising and cutting interest rates to manipulate the money supply is pure kikery at its worst. Also put aside that the widely cited inflation metrics (CPI, PCE) are just selective data sets to create a narrative. Again, kikery.

The Fed raised interest rates to curb inflation. They said they wanted it to trend towards 2% (based on their curated metrics). That would never happen unless they raised rates to at least 6% and sparked a major recession.

Now that the Fed will be starting with a 0.25% cut, it's possible inflation will trend upwards again. Government spending will never slow down. Individual spending isn't going down anytime soon. IIRC credit card debt is at all-time highs.

I think people are being led into a false sense of security that inflation has been tamed, when in reality the worse is yet to come.

How do you guys feel about it?


19 comments block


[ - ] GrayDragon 2 points 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 20:09:04 ago (+2/-0)

"Now that the Fed will be starting with a 0.25% cut ..."

Most think it will be a 50 basis points cut:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

How do I feel about it? I want it to drop because it will benefit me based upon my current situation, as I can also beat any realistic inflation that comes my way. And that is all that there is for the modern "American Way," me, Me, and MEEEEEEEEE! That is, until the catalyst comes that brings the whole clown world down.

[ - ] PoundOfFlesh [op] 1 point 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 20:35:42 ago (+1/-0)

Markets want a 50 bp cut and have already priced it in, but based on Fed's general reluctance it seems likely they'll take a smaller step. There will probably be sell-offs and freakouts in response to a smaller 25 bp cut. I think the Fed will hold in Nov with the intention of cutting again in Dec, but with election shenanigans and other nonsense the inflation uptrend will be firmly in process.

It has to be either a full recession or high inflation as the new normal. There is no room for a soft landing.

[ - ] WhiteCollarCriminal 1 point 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 20:40:10 ago (+1/-0)

I don't want a fed rate cut. That would be about the worst thing for my one year plan.

[ - ] PoundOfFlesh [op] 2 points 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 21:15:31 ago (+2/-0)

You're getting a rate cut whether you like it or not.

[ - ] WhiteCollarCriminal 1 point 7 monthsSep 18, 2024 21:02:41 ago (+1/-0)

As it turns out you were right and so was i!

[ - ] PoundOfFlesh [op] 0 points 7 monthsSep 18, 2024 23:08:14 ago (+0/-0)

And I was actually wrong about it being a 25 bp rate cut.

[ - ] MaryXmas 4 points 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 21:33:03 ago (+4/-0)

It's going to get much much worse before it gets better.

Line from Jim Rickards - you are watching the snowflakes, trying to figure out which one is going to cause the avalanche. It doesn't matter, stop looking at snowflakes and start preparing yourself for a currency collapse. I don't think we have a way around it, just a matter of when. I say rapid onset of hyper inflation and a collapse in 10 years. The only way we could avoid that is with rapid, rapid American adoption of AI in every sector and I don't know if we will be able to innovate fast enough.

[ - ] PoundOfFlesh [op] 3 points 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 21:42:19 ago (+3/-0)

The only way we could avoid [collapse] is with rapid, rapid American adoption of AI in every sector

Funnily enough my outlook is that the collapse will be the result of AI taking enough jobs from people.

[ - ] DoughGoy 1 point 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 00:49:15 ago (+1/-0)

That's what I was thinking. Imagine in 10 years, all truck driving could be automated. Truck driving is one of the few decent paying jobs that anyone could count on doing if all their other plans fail. It would be pretty bad if that option goes away.

[ - ] MaryXmas 0 points 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 03:03:07 ago (+0/-0)

That option will go away.

[ - ] MaryXmas 1 point 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 03:06:59 ago (+1/-0)

Oh yes, massive job collapse. However, all of those unemployed people will be able to innovate with AI and do it much faster than any enterprise would be able to. The slowest will be government agencies that do multi year contracts as they will not have the incentive to modernize. But it doesn't matter much if the government collapses.

[ - ] NeverHappened 1 point 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 09:57:15 ago (+1/-0)

I think AI has been intentionally stifled/ retarded from the get-go.

[ - ] MaryXmas 1 point 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 20:14:57 ago (+1/-0)

Absolutely has, but now the race is on and people are actually making progress. Open source will closely follow. I think it is going to be less about the model and more about how to get the request processed.

[ - ] Unreasonable 4 points 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 21:46:04 ago (+4/-0)

Naw. First we go into a deep depression and deflation. How else will they buy up everything cheap? Then AI take over. Programmers are out already. This year comes the entry level commercial artists (film, tv, ads, etc..) then they middle managers, cause there’s no middle if you don’t need the entry level people. I’m starting to really believe that most office type jobs will be obsolete in under 5 years.

Then UBI. There’s even a new tv show predictive programming it. Two out of work guys essentially go on a vacation now that the government is paying their bills.

Then hyperinflation.

But ya. First deflation and depression.

[ - ] aleleopathic 1 point 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 07:16:43 ago (+1/-0)

Programmers are out already.

Sort of - programmers are out, but not directly because of AI. AI code isn't fully there yet, and by 'fully there' I mean the bugs it introduces are subtle and tough to find, and the AI itself generally can't understand well enough to find them (or it requires profiling or real time debugging etc that AI can't do).

However, the jewish heads of tech companies are expecting AI will 'be ready for primetime' in programmming in the next few years, and so they cut programmers now to save money, and simply outsourced it to India or Vietnam in the interim.

Once ChatGPT can reliably write code / debug its own code, they will cut the Asian teams.

[ - ] HonkyMcNiggerSpic 2 points 7 monthsSep 16, 2024 23:11:17 ago (+2/-0)

If there's not a crash by April I will be surprised.

[ - ] SilentByAssociation 2 points 7 monthsSep 17, 2024 06:30:34 ago (+2/-0)

It could even be 50bps. That might be a stretch, but we'll find out tomorrow. All I know is that expansion follows recession, as surely as day follows night. I'm sure we're in a recession now, but they're trying to maintain a narrative so we'll see how well that really goes.

I also know it's going to get worse before it gets worse. There's a lot planned between now and the inauguration.

[ - ] Crackinjokes 0 points 7 monthsSep 26, 2024 07:02:54 ago (+0/-0)

Well eggs have already gone from $350 to $360 a dozen at the last west cost markets.
I don't buy milk so don't know.

I have seen some food stuffs go DOWN from their place st covid highs. You can buy some canned stuff for less than $1 again.

I think we will see red meat go very high.

House prices have slowed and even retracted some before the rate cut.

I suspect the rash of apartments recent ly built expecting almost 50% or more more rent than last year may not get it.

I suspect other than Bitcoin which I expect to continue to go up the only other money maker will be holding rest dental real estate with renters installed and borrowing against it.

The house flipping move has already peaked as the renovating construction workers are very scarce and very expensive making it not profitable. Also houses that have been renovated or sitting on the market without any interest at all. And at least from the friends I know trying to build a new house has just gone crazy in price from contractors and they have so much work they don't have to negotiate.

So I think housing calls are going to kind of stop going up for a while I think we're going to see the prime foods like red meat go up I think we're going to see the processed foods probably hold their price or go down because they really peaked the most after covid and have come down.

Gas is hard to predict because it's very dependent on who is allowing domestic production and who isn't and that's political.

I do think the big surprise increase will come from the price of electricity. We have a lot of AI companies and others moving into low-cost electricity markets and those are going to raise the cost of electricity and even cause some scarcity problems I suspect