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Fun read, but I think the author is wrong. If the logic of the first thread holds, then scenario 2 (israel escalates) would make a lot more sense.

submitted by prototype to whatever 1 monthApr 14, 2024 07:01:39 ago (+2/-0)     (whatever)

tl;dr
Support for israel is waning. The most they can ever get out of us is a war of obliteration in the middle east, i.e. iran, if that.
And the opportunity for that is fading year by year.

They have every reason to pull of another 9/11 now or soon, and not a lot of reason to avoid that option.
A big war with iran vs the u.s. takes the heat off them, makes a mess of things, lets them clean their hands of the damage, and point to the u.s. as the worse of two evils, with call backs to the disastrous war in afghanistan and similar.
The end result also gives them more leverage over a further bankrupt america, that is otherwise increasingly isolated.

Thinking about the challenges to benjamin's party and leadership, the challenges to biden's presidency (economy, inflation, dissatisfaction, public polarization) both have every reason to start a broader war in the middle east, as a distraction, as a hedge against losing in ukraine, as hedge against losing in ukraine resulting in USD facing a renewed global interest in BRICs and similar.
The DNC in shambles in terms of support (even if politically they're water tight operations-wise). I could write five pages why everything I see says it makes absolute sense that it is in both the u.s. regime's interests to manufacture a large scale cause for war, as well as in israel's interests (at least for their ruling regime).

Barring that I see regime change happening in either israel, the u.s., or both, soon (1-5 years).

1st thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1779259753597685952.html

2nd thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1779428151589851186.html




3 comments block


[ - ] TheodoreKent 1 point 1 monthApr 14, 2024 09:10:57 ago (+1/-0)

oh no, a prediction of something happening withing 1-5 year

[ - ] prototype [op] 1 point 4 weeksApr 16, 2024 03:09:19 ago (+1/-0)

I like to put upper limits on my estimates. My person view is that within the bounds of 2024 is where we should be looking for the conflict to escalate starting with a state sponsored attack. I'd put good money on april to mid may.

[ - ] Version6 0 points 1 monthApr 14, 2024 11:11:05 ago (+0/-0)

I would be surprised if izzies do anything militarily overt in the next few days. I would expect somoething like assassinations to be more likely.