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Wagner paid a PR firm to make you think they were heroes. The Russian military was very upset with them - they weren't supposed to take Bakhmut and caused a lot of problems in doing so. There's a reason Wagner is dissolved, the two heads are dead, and the entire thing is a memory. Taking the words of Prigozhin seriously are foolish. Maybe 20k of his people did die, who knows for sure. They were not Russian Army and that can't be used as a measuring device to estimate casualties in the Russian force.

Regarding Avdiivka I'm not following it closely but the consensus is that Russia is making faster progress than expected. They can afford to lose tanks, they have thousands of them. That's what they're for! Losing equipment is only a problem when you can't replace it, which is why it's such an issue for Ukraine/NATO.

Russian production is not a secret, there are videos of the factories with hundreds of drones visible. They didn't buy shells from North Korea, it appears they subcontracted shell production to NK. They send all of the materials and they are built in NK factory. The reason Russia does this is because their economy is at full employment and their biggest challenge is having enough people to work. Putin is making similar deals for non-military production throughout Central Asia in the last few weeks. This is what booming economies do, and is not a symptom of weakness by any stretch.

Russia's army is by any objective measure much stronger today than it was two years ago. I don't know what you're reading but it's clearly of low quality. Russia's recruitment success, expanded permanent army size, production, etc, are all public record and you can read about it all over the place. Their weapons have performed extremely well in real life, whereas NATO weapons have all been exposed as LARP's. This means Russia is about to have an enormous boom in their export market, something which has already begun. They just sent a bunch of fighter jets to Iran, top of the line shit.

NATO close to their borders no longer matters. NATO cannot defeat Russia in a fight, that's what has been proven over the last two years. Do try and keep up.

The artillery advantage isn't bullshit at all, it's a fact. You can find people on every side of this war talking about their artillery onslaughts. The Ukrainians and US military were claiming Russia had a huge advantage in volume last summer, it's not a theory it's a consensus fact. The only claims I hear made are that NATO has some longer range artillery models than Russia, which is meaningless if they can't be maintained, which is what Ukrainian soldiers have reported is a problem in major western press over the past two weeks. They say the barrels are worn out and they only fire a handful of shells PER DAY. Meanwhile, Russia continues bombarding at will, and has no shortage of artillery pieces or shells. This is because they have huge factories producing pieces and shells in volumes far beyond the capability of the US and Europe combined. This is easy to verify.

Finally, buying shells from NK, which isn't how it went down, is not a problem. If NK had a million laying around Russia would be dumb not to buy them. If they bought shells from NK, which definitely has a shit ton, then how would that support the argument that Russia is low on shells? The entire story was initially concocted as a cover story so people didn't notice the US was buying shells from South Korea, but I bet you don't know about that.

Regardless of media lies and war propaganda, it's a fact that Ukraine cannot maintain artillery firing levels on the lines and no one with any credibility claims as much. Add in Russia's air dominance (how many Ukrainian fighter jets did they shoot down last month?) and things become much more clear.

Russia has been winning the entire time and are now on the brink of totally overrunning what's left of Ukraine's military. You've been lied to, endlessly, in large volume, and you bought it.