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Reading the ever-doomsaying hal turner:
"""
U.S. President Biden has stated before the NATO Summit this upcoming week in Lithuania, that the United States and several other Countries are ready to provide Security Guarantees for Ukraine that is similar to the U.S-Israeli Framework, but . . .

such guarantees will not be possible until the end of the war with Russia.

Biden further stated, when asked about possible NATO Membership for Ukraine, that it will not happen in the near Future and “It will take some time due to Ukraine having to meet other steps before they are considered, such as Democratization and decisions regarding its Occupied-Territories.
The reaction inside Ukraine to Biden's remarks, has been stunned silence, so far.

Initially, it appears that this is NOT what Ukraine thought was going to happen . . . .
"""

If you read it closely, what the u.s. is tentatively saying in so many words is "you're unsafe ukraine! russia could attack you if you don't agree to our security guarantees."
Thats the summary of it. But for some reason the u.s. has seen to completely obfuscate what amounts to an accusation. I have a theory this is because the u.s. regimes 1. knows the rest of the world works off the "the u.s. always accuses you of what it is planning to do" playbook, 2. this is a distancing statement by the u.s., which makes absolute sense if a follow-through attack is fully the intent. The prior bullshit would have had the u.s. make the accusation directly, and the u.s. has done that in the past, and of course nothing substantial changed in the u.s. behavior (peacocking our threats). So the distancing employed here is a significant indicator.

This framework can also be used to analyze the commentary about NATO membership. What is the u.s. regime essentially saying here? They're talking about ukraine as if ukraine has become some third world nation that hostile to the u.s.. Thats the tone here. So the rumors that ukraine may be in talks for peace appear, on the surface, to have some substance. This is deadly significant, because if the "international rules based order" has been a tacit cooperation between europe, america, china, and russia on the global stage, what this represents is in fact the beginning breakup of that very order. This is a qualitatively different situation to the prior mere posturing and threats exchanged between the u.s and russia prior to this.

The u.s. is saying "ukraine can join nato if they call it all off and we'll protect them."
A have-our-cake-and-eat-it-too response. Its the u.s. saying on the surface it doesn't want a fight,
while below the surface saying it has changed its stance and is now willing to do just that.
The u.s. is playing hardball here while using a softball tone.

This suggests elements of the u.s. are preparing to deny ukraine nato entry, blame the failure to
enter nato on ukraine itself, and then spoil for a fight.

It suggests to me bidens gonna burn the whole thing down, probably over his domestic problems, both
national policy outcomes, and the political crises of faith due to his family scandals and party
overreach.

They lost control of biden, probably lost control of obama.

And if I'm correct, then other players have already came to these same conclusions.

Reaching a little further, that moves china, europe, and russia's next moves to no later than november
of next year at the latest.