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1-in-3 chance normalized to past prediction accuracy. Long tail risk out to 21 days from now.

Factors include intensification of armenian war zone, concurrent war drills by adversarial nations, recent u.s. readiness changes, insider information about preparations for lowering DEFCON 3 (and 2 in some theaters), attacks on russian nuclear triad, previous narratives out of london wrt to uranium smuggling, israel redlining of iranian enrichment and followup attacks, discontinuation of nuclear treaties, war in syria, large attacks on nato comms arguably by russia (unlikely). Continual and growing abandonment of the petrodollar system. Escalatory situational planning esp. u.s. war gaming the loss of power projection over the failing dollar, israeli war scenarios involving the loss of military support from the u.s., and chinese scenarios involving limited windows to act on taiwan.

Potential targets are taiwan, CONUS (with the inclusion of hawaii), and western europe, with an emphasis on five-eyes nations excluding new zealand and australia.

More to come as new info and developments unfold.