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vI think the 4chan version is more believable: red states start ignoring unconstitutional laws; feds are dispatched to force them and arrest state officials who don't comply, only to be arrested themselves by state police; Federal Marshals are deployed to arrest the state police; governors respond by activating the National Guard to refuse entry to the state by Marshals and other Feds; states are declared to be in open rebellion and martial law follows; the Army is deployed and the militias follow suit.

Yeah but what conditions are necessary to vastly increase the likelihood of this exact series of events?