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I think it's obvious they will, I give it 2-6 months, which I admit is a wide window, but "they" seem spooked lately and it makes them harder to predict, and I think it will lead to a bunch of false flags to get ahead of any genuine patriotic reaction, but ultimately it will lead to the breakup of the country split largely down urban vs. rural lines.

I think that entire states, like TX and OK to leave, and partial states to leave, such as S. Illinois, maybe western NY.

No, I don't think the military will be able to do jack shit. Any state that leaves will just keep their National Guard units and equipment. The federal military is already weaker than it already was 2 years ago. Of the remaining soldiers, the SJW types will be mere cannon fodder, the non-SJWs will refuse orders and move to/join the militaries that left.

It's even possible in this scenario that, "good guys" take advantage of it and take over the military and purge it of those who have been compromised/ controlled.

None of what I said will be as simple as I wrote it out, obviously, but whatever complications I think that's generally what would happen if they arrest Trump, and it certainly looks like that's what they're getting ready to do.